Carrier Capacity Gap Widens as Rejection Rates Climb

Carriers are rejecting loads at historically elevated rates, signaling a genuine shortage of trucking capacity relative to current demand levels. According to FreightWaves analysis of SONAR data, the Truckload Rejection Index (STRI) has climbed above 16% in recent weeks, up sharply from about 4% in June 2023, while the Accepted Truckload Volume Index (ASTVI) has remained relatively flat at around 10,450. This gap points to carriers being roughly 12 to 14% underserved relative to demand. When rejection rates exceed the normal 2 to 4% baseline seen in balanced markets, it reflects genuine capacity constraints rather than rate strategy. Carriers have no incentive to turn down freight; rejections damage customer relationships and generate no upside. Higher rates, by contrast, create internal motivation to push prices up. The current tightening mirrors demand shocks from 2017 and 2020, when government stimulus drove tender volumes up roughly 60% in just a few months. Those cycles eventually reversed as demand fell off sharply. Drivers hauling in this environment should expect continued rate pressure and stable freight availability, but history suggests this cycle depends far more on demand swings than supply shifts. When freight demand softens, carrier capacity will quickly feel oversupplied again.