Mexico produce surge pushing cross-border rates up earlier than expected

Cross-border freight markets between the U.S. and Mexico are tightening faster than anticipated as strong agricultural exports and tight driver availability push rates higher ahead of peak season, according to Uber Freight's Q2 Market Update & Outlook report released Thursday. March shipments of citrus, fruits and nuts from Mexico through Laredo jumped more than 36% compared to the same period in 2025, while total exports through the corridor climbed 8% year over year. The surge is pulling trucking capacity toward key cross-border routes and produce-growing regions, leaving dry van equipment in short supply. Uber Freight forecasts truckload spot rates will remain 20% to 25% above 2025 levels through the rest of the year, while contract rates could rise 5% to 10%. Reefer rates have spiked notably: Fresno-to-Chicago reefer spot rates jumped 43% in a single month, and produce transportation rates from California to Chicago increased nearly 25% recently as carriers shift equipment to take advantage of stronger refrigerated pricing. For shippers moving perishables, Uber Freight recommends tendering freight four to five days in advance on cross-border lanes and booking reefer capacity early. The earlier-than-normal peak season reflects a combination of produce volumes, rising fuel costs and declining driver availability converging on supply chains that typically see such pressure later in the year.