Why Record US Oil Production Won't Lower Your Diesel Costs

Why It Matters Diesel prices hit $5.40 per gallon in late March 2026, up $1.31 in just three weeks. For a carrier running 125,000 miles annually at 6.5 mpg, that means an extra $25,000 per truck per year in fuel costs. Understanding the root cause is critical to managing your bottom line. Key Details The Strait of Hormuz closure disrupted 20% of global oil supply when Iran blocked tanker traffic in early March. While the US produces record amounts of crude oil - 13.6 million barrels daily - that doesn't protect us from global price shocks because crude trades on a worldwide market. The Real Problem Diesel must be refined from crude oil, and that's where America has a critical weakness. The US hasn't built a major new refinery since 1977. Current refineries are running near capacity, and those that shut down during COVID haven't fully reopened. When global crude prices spike, our refining costs rise regardless of crude source. What This Means We have abundant crude in the ground but lack the refining capacity to process it quickly enough to buffer global disruptions. This structural problem developed over decades and cannot be solved overnight. Until refining capacity expands, diesel price volatility will remain a cost pressure for your operations.