Spot Rates Surge While Contract Premium Narrows in 2026

Key Details Spot rates rebounded sharply to $2.01 per mile in February, up from $1.65 in November 2025, while contract rates climbed to $2.12 from $1.99 over the same period. According to the latest U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index, this marks the fourth consecutive month of increases across both pricing mechanisms, signaling a significant market shift. Why It Matters The spot market is recovering much faster than contracts. Spot linehaul has climbed roughly 28 percent since bottoming at $1.57 in May 2025, while contract pricing has gained only 6.5 percent. This compression of the contract premium reflects carriers tightening capacity and becoming more selective about freight rather than chasing higher volumes. The Bigger Picture Year-over-year data reveals a puzzling disconnect: spot linehaul jumped 23.3 percent while contract linehaul rose just 5 percent, yet spot volumes fell 3.7 percent and contract volumes dropped 22.1 percent. This divergence shows pricing power is shifting toward carriers through capacity discipline, not demand growth. Shippers must adjust budget expectations as carriers protect yield in a tighter market environment.