Rail Surge Shows Manufacturing Momentum: Strongest Q1 Since 2019

Key Details U.S. freight railroads posted their strongest March performance in years, with weekly carloads averaging 230,401 - the highest since 2019. First-quarter volumes totaled 2.68 million carloads, up 4.2% year-over-year and marking the best Q1 since 2019. This marks the third consecutive monthly increase in carload traffic. Why It Matters The recovery spans multiple sectors, with 12 of the 20 major carload categories showing year-over-year gains. This broad-based strength signals genuine stabilization across the goods-producing economy, not just isolated pockets of demand. Chemical shipments reached record weekly averages of 35,580 carloads in March, up 5.5% year-over-year. Chemical volumes remain the clearest indicator of industrial health. U.S. producers benefit from competitive natural gas pricing, supporting both domestic production and exports. Grain traffic also surged, with March volumes up 10.3% to over 97,900 carloads - the highest Q1 since 1993. Intermodal traffic averaged 280,076 units weekly, the second-highest March on record. Carloads excluding coal (the cleanest measure of industrial activity) hit their strongest March level since 2008, and highest monthly average since August 2019. These data confirm the American manufacturing renaissance is real and durable.