Airline Fuel Surge Forces United to Cut 2026 Profit Outlook

Key Details United Airlines slashed its full-year profit forecast due to rising fuel costs driven by Middle East geopolitical tensions. The carrier now projects adjusted earnings of $7 to $11 per share, down from its previous guidance of $12 to $14 per share for 2026. Why It Matters Fuel expenses climbed nearly 13% in Q1 to $3.04 billion, representing roughly $340 million more than the prior year. This pressure mirrors challenges facing Delta and Alaska Air, which have also adjusted or withdrawn their full-year guidance. Strong Demand Continues Despite cost pressures, United beat expectations with Q1 adjusted earnings of $1.19 per share against analyst forecasts of $1.09. Revenue rose 11% to $14.6 billion, with premium products jumping 14% and business travel climbing 14%. Operational Adjustments United is reducing planned capacity growth by approximately 5% to manage escalating costs. The carrier expects second-half 2026 capacity to be flat to up 2% year-over-year, based on projected fuel prices around $4.30 per gallon. CEO Scott Kirby noted that market uncertainty may present opportunities for strategic positioning.