West Coast Rejection Rates Stay Low While Midwest Surges Past 18%

Key Details Regional truckload tender rejection rates typically move together, but the West Coast is defying the trend. Midwest rejection rates have stayed above 18% for the past month, while West Coast rates peaked near 5% in early February before declining further. This regional divergence raises questions about what's really driving the market. Why Seasonality Matters The West Coast historically experiences lower rejection rates in early year months due to containerized import patterns. Container volumes from Los Angeles and Long Beach ports dip seasonally during this period, as retail goods ordered during summer preparation months arrive primarily in fall. The later Lunar New Year in 2024 likely pushed the typical import volume rebound into April rather than March. Weather Impact Varies by Region While the West Coast faced flooding and Sierra Nevada snowfall, these disruptions rarely affect major shipping infrastructure long-term. Winter Storm Fern missed the Midwest directly but devastated surrounding regions, creating shipper backlogs and forcing carriers out of balance. The Southwest and Southeast experienced the storm's worst effects, yet the Midwest still recorded the highest rejection levels, suggesting the region was already under capacity strain. Bottom Line The divergence reflects both natural seasonal patterns and uneven storm recovery impacts across regions.