Truckload Rates Hit 3-Year Peak as Capacity Tightens in February

Key Details The Cass Information Systems multimodal shipments index showed mixed signals in February. Freight volumes declined 7.2% year-over-year, but rebounded 10.4% from January as the market recovered from prior weather disruptions. The truckload linehaul rate index climbed to its highest level since April 2021, marking six consecutive months of sequential increases. Why It Matters Truckload rates rose to high-single-digit percentages year-over-year despite soft freight demand. This supply-driven recovery reflects tightening capacity across the industry, driven by English-language proficiency requirements, CDL restrictions, ELD provider crackdowns, and driver school closures. On a two-year stacked basis, rates jumped 4.1%, the largest increase since early 2021. What's Ahead Analysts expect rates to keep climbing as spot capacity remains tight and supply constraints persist. However, carriers may struggle to push the aggressive rate increases they hoped for due to inflationary fuel pressures. If typical seasonal patterns hold, overall freight volumes could decline another 5% year-over-year in March, though supply constraints should continue supporting higher rates.