Tariff Front-Loading, Not Market Recovery, Driving Current Freight Surge

Why It Matters The freight surge accelerating through May 2026 looks strong on paper, but carriers need to understand what's really driving it. This isn't organic demand recovery - it's shippers pulling inventory forward ahead of tariff increases. That distinction changes everything about how you should position your business right now. Key Details National dry van spot rates are up more than 20% year over year as of mid-May, with flatbed volume nearly 50% above last year's levels. The SONAR Outbound Tender Rejection Index is hovering near 14%, a level not seen since 2022. These are real numbers and real money on the table. The Catch Front-loading follows a predictable pattern. Importers rush to bring goods in before tariff deadlines hit, volumes spike temporarily, then warehouses fill and new orders slow dramatically. Carriers who stretch their resources to capture the surge - adding fuel costs, running harder miles, committing to loads - often get caught with inflated expenses when freight volumes drop off. What's Next This cycle repeats every time tariffs change. Understand the pattern and plan accordingly. Don't overextend based on what looks like sustained market strength. Once warehouses are full, the freight dries up fast.