Spring Freight Squeeze: Rejection Rates Stay Elevated as Market Tightens

Key Details National tender rejection rates have barely budged since February, hovering near 13.35% compared to their early February peak of 14.27%. Dry van spot rates are climbing again as fuel prices surge, signaling potential market headwinds ahead for carriers and shippers alike. Why It Matters Tender rejections reveal the true health of the truckload market better than spot rates. When carriers reject loads, it means they either lack capacity in that region or have more profitable opportunities elsewhere. This metric reflects operational reality, not market sentiment, making it a stronger indicator than the volatile spot market. The Bigger Picture This year's pattern differs sharply from typical winter disruptions. While past weather events caused quick recovery periods, current rejection rates remain stubbornly high two months after Winter Storm Fern. The persistent tightness mirrors the prolonged market squeeze seen in 2021 during the pandemic, though at lower intensity. What's Ahead The industry faces additional pressures from seasonal factors and incoming regulatory changes. Carriers should prepare for continued capacity constraints and margin pressure as the market navigates what could be a prolonged transitional period through spring and beyond.