Reefer Market Whipsaw: South Texas Rates Spike 40%, Crash 40% in Two Weeks

Key Details The produce reefer market experienced extreme volatility over two weeks in late May 2026. South Texas, which surged under shortage conditions last week with rates up 27% to Baltimore, flipped to adequate truck supply this week and saw rates plummet 21-41% depending on destination. The Dallas lane exemplifies the swing: roughly $3,900 (May 12) to $4,000 (May 19 under shortage) to $2,500 (May 26 adequate supply). That's a complete reversal in just 14 days. California's Hold Salinas and Santa Maria, which spiked 36-66% last week, are now holding flat. This consolidation at elevated levels is critical to monitor - these rates may establish a new floor or could collapse like South Texas did. The pattern suggests different regional dynamics despite similar supply pressures. Florida's Continued Weakness Florida remains rated as short on trucks, but the load pool is clearly shrinking as the season ends. The Baltimore lane dropped $1,100 in one week alone, from $4,500-$4,700 to $3,400-$3,600. Why It Matters This whipsaw demonstrates how quickly border crossing supply can flip due to enforcement actions, weather, or volume shifts. Carriers who locked in peak rates last week profited handsomely, while this week's loads sit near multi-month lows. Yakima's availability tightening without rate movement signals potential increases ahead. Rethink equipment positioning based on real-time supply conditions, not last week's rates.