Moving Industry Navigates Tax Gains Against Tariff Headwinds

Key Details The moving and storage industry faces a mixed economic outlook heading into 2025, according to industry economists speaking at the American Trucking Associations' Moving & Storage Conference in Nashville. Lindsay Bur, director of data science and economics at ATA, identified potential growth drivers including larger tax refunds expected this April that could boost consumer spending in the second quarter. Interest Rate Outlook The Federal Reserve is expected to implement two more quarter-point rate cuts, though likely later in the year than previously anticipated. Bur noted the Fed must balance competing concerns around inflation and employment as it shapes monetary policy moving forward. Tariff Concerns Tariffs represent a significant threat to the industry's recovery prospects. Higher consumer costs from tariffs could dampen spending and create ripple effects throughout freight and manufacturing sectors. Bur also flagged potential tariff refunds as a future complication, following a Supreme Court ruling that may require companies to reclaim previously paid tariff costs. Housing and Jobs Edward Seiler from the Mortgage Bankers Association emphasized that housing affordability directly influences relocation activity. While job growth averaged only 10,000 positions monthly in 2025, unemployment rates remain relatively low. However, Seiler warned that headline unemployment figures may mask underlying labor market weakness among discouraged workers.