Manufacturing Momentum Signals Stronger Freight Demand Ahead in 2026

Key Details U.S. manufacturing expanded for the second consecutive month in February with an ISM Manufacturing PMI of 52.4. New Orders jumped to 55.8 percent after four months of decline, marking a critical turning point for freight demand. The Backlog of Orders Index hit 56.6 percent, its highest level since May 2022, indicating production pipelines are filling up again. What This Means Customers' Inventories remain depleted at 38.8 percent, historically the lowest level since June 2022. This understocking typically triggers restocking freight activity that benefits carriers. When manufacturers see lean customer inventories paired with rising orders, truckload demand typically follows. The Rate Picture Dry van linehaul spot rates dipped below $2.00 per mile by late February after four consecutive weekly declines. Rates dropped $0.08 during the month but remain $0.36 above year-ago levels and $0.41 higher than the five-year average. Top 50 lanes averaged $2.24 per mile, while Midwest states posted $2.44 per mile. Tariff Headwinds Manufacturers report rising costs for steel, aluminum, and imports as Section 232 tariffs take effect. Companies are shifting to domestic suppliers and pushing costs through supply chains while managing headcount carefully. The mood remains cautiously optimistic despite operational stress.