Hormuz Delays Could Push Oil to $120 a Barrel, JPMorgan Warns

Key Details Oil prices could test wartime highs near $120 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz remains partially blocked through July, according to JPMorgan Chase analysts. Currently, markets expect about 50% of normal flows by May and full recovery by June. However, a slower resumption extending to July could add $15-20 to barrel prices, pushing benchmarks from current $100 levels to crisis peaks. Why It Matters The Hormuz strait handles roughly one-third of global oil production, making any disruption critical for fuel costs and your operating expenses. As of April 9, approximately 346 energy vessels remained trapped in the Persian Gulf, carrying 104 million barrels of crude, 1.3 million tons of liquefied natural gas, and 5.5 million barrels of liquefied petroleum gas. What's Next Washington and Tehran are scheduled to hold talks this weekend, with strait access as a primary negotiating point. The temporary ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. shows movement toward resolution, but any prolonged delays could significantly impact diesel costs at the pump and your bottom line throughout 2024.