Freight Costs Jump 21.8% YoY While Volumes Stay Flat in Q1 2026

Key Details The U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index powered by DAT data shows shippers paid significantly more to move freight in Q1 2026, even though volumes remained essentially flat. The National Spend Index jumped 12.9% from Q4 2025 and 21.8% year over year - marking the largest sequential increase since the pandemic boom of late 2020. Meanwhile, volumes edged down just 0.3% quarter over quarter and were up only 0.6% annually. Why It Matters This disconnect reveals a capacity crunch hitting driver wallets hard. Spot rates averaged $2.56 per mile in Q1, up 11.9% quarter over quarter and $0.40 higher than the Q2 2025 bottom. Diesel prices surged from $3.47 to $5.40 per gallon by quarter-end - a 55% jump driven by Middle East tensions and the largest single-week spike ever recorded. Regional Breakdown The Midwest posted its first year-over-year shipment increase in six years, fueled by auto production and defense manufacturing. The Southwest continued sliding with its tenth straight quarter of double-digit annual declines. Across all regions, spending rose despite mixed volume trends, underscoring the capacity crisis. Bottom Line The market is recovering because carrier supply finally tightened, not because demand surged. Drivers and carriers leveraging this cycle should act decisively while conditions remain favorable.