For-Hire Trucking Hits 4-Year Volume Peak While Capacity Shrinks, Oil Prices Pose Risk

Key Details ACT Research's latest data reveals strong momentum in the for-hire trucking sector, with volumes reaching a four-year high in February. The improvement was driven partly by winter storms that created freight backlogs across the Midwest, South, and East Coast. Meanwhile, the Capacity Index continued its contraction trend, marking the 11th consecutive month in neutral or negative territory. Why It Matters The tightening capacity environment is finally beginning to ease overcapacity pressures that have weighed on rates for months. ACT's Supply-Demand Balance climbed to a 4.5-year high, signaling better conditions ahead for carrier profitability. The Trucking Pricing Index jumped 5.3 points month-over-month as the combination of higher volumes and lower capacity created favorable rate dynamics. Headwinds Emerge However, rising oil prices following geopolitical tensions have effectively neutralized any gains carriers might see from upcoming tariff relief. The planned repeal of IEEPA tariffs and expiration of Section 122 tariffs should reduce effective rates by roughly 10 percent, but energy costs are offsetting those benefits. ACT Research warns that elevated fuel prices could slow economic growth and suppress freight demand in the near term, potentially limiting the freight recovery momentum.