Flatbed Tonnage Inches Up: Supply Cuts Drive Rates, Not Demand

Key Details The ATA For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index rose 0.4% in January to 113.0, continuing a gradual recovery from October lows. However, January tonnage remained 1.3% below August's 2025 peak, and the full year 2025 matched 2024 with zero growth. Year-over-year gains were minimal at just 0.5%. Why It Matters The freight market's improvement is being driven by reduced carrier capacity, not freight volume surges. ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello emphasized that carriers still operating benefit from fewer competitors rather than increased shipper demand. This supply-side dynamic means rate recovery will remain uneven unless demand grows to match capacity reductions. Flatbed Market Gains National spot rates for flatbed linehaul reached $2.33 per mile last week, marking five consecutive weeks of increases between $0.03 and $0.04 per mile. Current rates are 15% above year-ago levels and 16% higher than the five-year average. Load volumes jumped 4% last week and are now 47% higher than this time last year. What's Next Watch for produce season and Q2 import activity to inject demand-driven growth into the market. Without volume catalysts materializing, flatbed carriers may see rate momentum plateau despite ongoing capacity tightness and improving load-to-truck ratios.