Flatbed Outpacing Dry Van as AI Boom Drives Freight Split

Key Details February for-hire trucking data reveals a stalled freight market on the surface, with year-over-year demand up just 0.1%. However, this aggregate number masks a critical divergence shaping truckload markets. AI infrastructure sectors including construction steel, electrical switchgear, and batteries are posting meaningful gains, while consumer-driven freight like furniture and appliances continues contracting. Why It Matters This sectoral split explains why flatbed rates have significantly outpaced dry van in 2026. Growing infrastructure projects generate open-deck freight, tightening flatbed capacity. Meanwhile, sluggish consumer spending keeps dry vans running with excess capacity. For carriers and shippers, the real story isn't flat aggregate demand - it's the divergent market conditions by commodity and lane. Rate Updates Dry van linehaul spot rates dropped $0.02 per mile last week to just under $1.99 per mile, following a $0.25 per gallon diesel decline to $5.56. Despite the recent dip, current rates remain $0.40 per mile (25%) above year-ago levels. The rate recovery stems primarily from shrinking carrier capacity rather than increased freight volume, with carriers exiting the market creating artificial tightness. What's Next Shippers must shift from broad-market strategies to targeted approaches based on specific commodities and lanes. The freight market's structural split between strong infrastructure demand and weak consumer freight will likely persist, requiring more sophisticated procurement decisions.