Electric Trucks Poised to Dominate Fleet Economics by 2035, NACFE Study Shows

Key Details The North American Council for Freight Efficiency's latest Run on Less report analyzed 73,000 miles of real-world data from 13 fleets and 14 trucks to assess total cost of ownership (TCO) trends. Major carriers including J.B. Hunt, Penske, Amazon, and Pitt Ohio contributed operational insights to build a clearer industry picture. Why It Matters Fleets cannot rely on one-size-fits-all cost comparisons across powertrains. NACFE emphasizes there is no average TCO because operations vary significantly by duty cycle, geography, utilization rates, and energy costs. This complexity demands customized decision-making frameworks rather than rigid benchmarks. The Trajectory Ahead Diesel remains the lowest-cost option today across all duty cycles. However, battery-electric trucks are projected to become the most cost-effective solution by 2035 as battery and powertrain costs decline and manufacturing scales up. Current electric trucks are still early-production designs with inefficiencies in battery sourcing and component costs that will improve substantially. Critical Success Factor Utilization rates are the most important variable in determining EV economics. Battery-electric trucks perform best in high-mileage applications like drayage and return-to-base operations where fleets can spread higher upfront costs across greater usage. This insight helps carriers identify which operations benefit most from electrification today.