Dry Van Rates Surge 36% Despite Weak Freight Demand in April

Key Details The April Cass Freight Index shows a troubling disconnect: shipment volumes fell 4.4% year-over-year, marking the third consecutive monthly decline. Yet linehaul rates jumped 3.2% month-over-month and hit their largest annual gain since August 2022 at 5.6% year-over-year. Why It Matters This isn't demand-driven pricing. A growing driver shortage, accelerated by new FMCSA regulations, is tightening capacity across dry van, reefer, and flatbed segments. Spot rates are running roughly 25% above year-ago levels, with national dry van rates reaching $2.27 per mile - a 36% jump compared to last year. Current Conditions The load-to-truck ratio dropped 6% last week to 12.04, yet volumes remain 57% higher than last year and 41% below the five-year average when excluding pandemic years. Even with gradual capacity recovery after Roadcheck Week, the market remains significantly constrained. Bottom Line Shippers betting on volume recovery before renegotiating rates may get left behind. The market has already shifted. Expect continued pressure on freight costs regardless of demand recovery timeline.