Dry Van Capacity Shift: Fleets Choose Dedicated Lanes Over Spot Market

Key Details The Journal of Commerce Truckload Capacity Index ticked up slightly from 72.4% in Q3 2025 to 73.5% in Q4, but this modest gain masks a larger story. Capacity remains near its lowest point in over a decade, and major carriers are being highly selective about fleet expansion. Rather than competing for spot freight, leading fleets like Werner are reducing one-way truck counts while growing dedicated and specialized lanes. Strategic Repositioning Publicly-owned carriers are reporting only low single-digit contract rate increases, signaling market discipline. Werner's acquisition of FirstFleet to expand its dedicated footprint by 50% exemplifies this trend. Even smaller players like Covenant are planning modest fleet reductions while pursuing niche acquisitions and experiencing sharp increases in shipper bid activity. Why It Matters Regulatory headwinds, including the FMCSA's crackdown on non-domiciled CDLs and substandard CDL schools, are accelerating small carrier attrition. This tightening supply environment combined with rising shipper anxiety over cargo security creates favorable conditions for patient, disciplined carriers. The setup increasingly rewards operators willing to focus on dedicated, high-value lanes rather than chasing volatile spot market rates. Rate Environment The national 7-day average dry van linehaul spot rate reached $1.97 per mile, up $0.34 from a year ago. Top 50 lanes averaged $2.29 per mile while Midwest rates hit $2.36 per mile. Load-to-truck ratios held steady at 10.6 loads per truck.