Driver Shortage Lifting Dry Van Rates as Demand Slowly Recovers

Key Details The March Cass Freight Index shows mixed signals for truckload markets. Shipments fell 4.5% year-over-year but gained 3.0% month-over-month, building momentum from February's 10.4% surge. In seasonally adjusted terms, the index is on track to turn positive year-over-year in the second half of 2026. Why It Matters Supply constraints, not freight demand, are driving current rate improvements. The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index sits 1.8% above year-ago levels as capacity contracts and driver shortages resurface. The non-domiciled CDL rule implemented mid-March is already tightening availability - ACT's For-Hire Driver Availability Index dropped to 35.0 in March from 39.8 in February, a level historically linked to rate cycle starts. Current Market Rates National dry van spot rates held steady at just under $1.99 per mile last week, excluding fuel surcharges. This represents a 25% increase from one year ago and a 23% jump above the five-year average. Top 50 lanes averaged $2.35 per mile, while Midwest rates settled at $2.28 per mile. The load-to-truck ratio remained at 7.45 nationally despite a 6% drop in load posts, signaling continued capacity tightening. Bottom Line This recovery is being driven by attrition, not growth. Shippers with favorable contract rates should act soon as the window is narrowing.