2026 Trade Growth Hinges on Energy Prices and AI Demand Surge

Key Details The World Trade Organization upgraded its 2026 merchandise trade forecast to 1.9% growth, significantly better than its October prediction of 0.5%. This improvement follows stronger-than-expected 2025 performance, driven largely by AI-related demand and smaller-than-anticipated tariff impacts. Services trade is expected to grow 4.8% in 2026. Why It Matters Two competing forces will shape global trade this year. Sustained high energy prices from Middle East conflict could reduce goods trade growth by 0.5 percentage points and services growth by 0.7 points. Conversely, continued AI momentum could add 0.5 percentage points to goods trade if the electronics and semiconductor boom persists. Regional Outlook Asia led 2025 trade volume gains with 71% of total increases, while North America lagged in both exports and imports. A prolonged Persian Gulf conflict risks elevating transport and fuel costs structurally while disrupting key shipping routes and regional tourism. U.S. Trade Impact Trump administration tariffs proved less disruptive than feared due to implementation delays, minimal retaliation, and numerous exceptions. However, ongoing tariff threats continue creating uncertainty for shippers and carriers planning inventory and logistics strategies.